[Disclaimer: I own Bitcoin and several altcoins. This is not investment advice and is provided for information only. This considers the economic case for cryptocurrency and is not a recommendation to buy. Do your own research and consult a financial advisor.]
A crypto bear market is brutal.
According to Glassnode, they last anywhere between 227 and 435 days with bitcoin drawdowns of between 75% and 84%.
In bear markets altcoins tend to fall even more, often up to 95%.
In all other markets, a bear market is normally defined as a decline of 20% or more.
However, crypto is so volatile that it can fall 20% even in a rising market. For crypto that is just a really healthy bull market correction.
Instead, for crypto, my preferred definition of a bear market is a fall below the 200 day moving average. This is a common technical analysis indicator and is a good reflection of the long term mean.
A fall below the 200 day moving average for a prolonged period of time is known as a crypto winter and, so far, these have been predictable and cyclical phenomena.
Bitcoin 200 day moving average
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